Monday, 17 February 2025

Latam FX muted after recent gains; Argentine markets hit after crypto scandal




Latin American Markets Mixed as Investors Await US-Russia Talks and Assess Economic Data

The Latin American markets were mixed on Monday, with most currencies and stock indexes rising, while some countries experienced losses due to economic data and geopolitics.

The MSCI Latam currencies index rose 0.1%, while the MSCI Latam stocks index gained 0.3% to its highest level in three months. The Argentine stock market, however, dropped 5.4% after President Javier Milei’s links to a cryptocurrency scandal were revealed. This led to impeachment proceedings being considered.

The US-Russia talks were a major focus, with the Russian ruble slipping 0.4% against the dollar ahead of the discussions. Ukrainian sovereign dollar-denominated bonds fell, with the 2036 maturity bond losing 1 cent to trade at 68.75 cents on the dollar, its biggest daily fall this year.

Brazil’s economic activity data showed a 3.8% growth in 2024, but the economy lost momentum at the end of the year as the central bank began to hike interest rates. The Brazilian real was flat, while the main stock index added 0.6%.

Chile’s peso dropped 0.8%, snapping a nine-session winning streak, due to declining copper prices. The Mexican peso was flat, while the main stock index rose 0.3% due to oil company Ecopetrol’s 1.2% jump. Colombia’s peso fell 0.1% as investors assessed data showing the economy grew 1.7% in 2024, lower than the 1.8% expected by Reuters.

Peru’s sol inched up 0.2% after data showed the economy grew more than expected in December.

Trading was light, with US markets closed for a holiday.

Key Takeaways:

  • MSCI Latam currencies index rose 0.1%
  • MSCI Latam stocks index gained 0.3% to its highest level in three months
  • Argentine stocks drop 5.4% after President Milei’s links to a cryptocurrency scandal were revealed
  • Russian ruble slips 0.4% ahead of US-Russia talks
  • Ukrainian sovereign dollar-denominated bonds fall 1 cent to trade at 68.75 cents on the dollar, its biggest daily fall this year
  • Brazil’s economic activity data shows 3.8% growth in 2024, but economy lost momentum at the end of the year as the central bank began to hike interest rates

Market Analysis:

"The region’s markets have been pretty resilient, given the uncertainty surrounding global trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. "But the recent drop in US retail sales has rekindled hopes for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, which has boosted markets. However, the region is still vulnerable to global trends, and investors need to remain cautious."

The article provides a comprehensive update on the state of Latin American markets, highlighting the factors influencing the region’s economies and investments. The article assesses the impact of the US-Russia talks, the relative strength of the region’s currencies, and the performance of its stock markets. It also highlights the specific challenges facing different countries, such as Argentina’s troubles due to the cryptocurrency scandal and Brazil’s economic growth data. Overall, the article provides valuable insights into the complex and interconnected world of global finance.




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